MI-11: Blue District

The folks at Swing State Project have done an incredible job tabulating the Presidential vote by Congressional District.  And, as they continue to plug away at the nation's 435 districts, they've finally gotten to the Michigan Eleventh.

The result:  Barack Obama, 196,909; John McCain, 163,190.

In 2004, George Bush won the district by four points.  In 2008, Barack Obama won by more than nine.  That's a thirteen point swing towards the good guys.

Couple this with Thad's dismal reelection numbers, and it is clear that McCotter is a top target for 2010.  This race is eminently winnable, and we will get it done.

Draft Glenn Anderson For Congress Movement Mounting

Draft Glenn Anderson For Congress has a Facebook group.  With 101 members, it's a sizable movement.  Even more notable than its size is its most notable member:  State Rep. Richard LeBlanc.

If you recall, Rep. LeBlanc was a 5th on our Cattle Call when I previewed the odds of the race last time around.  This obviously means that LeBlanc will not be running, but says something something even more important about the race:  Senator Anderson has his first significant endorsement before even deciding to run.

I've had the privilege of speaking with Senator Anderson a couple of times over the past month or so through my work at WSDP - Plymouth.  He was a very engaging interview, and seemed to genuinely care about the issues he was talked about.

This is not an endorsement from me (even though the Facebook group does list this as its homepage.)  No, I'd like to see how the field shakes out before making a decision.  But I can say that Senator Anderson would be a great candidate, and would be more than capable of taking out Thaddeus.

McCotter Votes Against Economic Recovery

Today the House voted on the $825 billion economic recovery package.  Following the lead of the rest of the Republican Caucus, Thad took a stand for obstructionism over recovery; for partisanship over unity.

President Obama bent over backwards to accommodate the Republican ideas, donating a significant amount of the package to the Republican gold standard of "OMG TAX CUTZ!!!11!!"  Even after this, not a single Republican was willing to vote for the bill.

If there is one lesson from today, it is that House Republicans are irrelevant.  Even with a completely united Caucus, the House GOP was unable to stop a good bill.

And Thad McCotter had better watch out. If/when the Obama plan puts people back to work, restores confidence and gets the economy rolling again, people are not going to forget that he took a stand against it.  And I'm not going to let 'em.

Thad Loses His Soul

Thaddeus McCotter drew some heat last campaign over his vote against expanding the State Children's Health Insurance Program.  Catholics United criticized him immensely for it, and he called the group "the devil" over it.  No, Thad didn't back down, and urged other Republicans to hold firm with him.  For, if the GOP was to be "daunted by the politics of SCHIP," it would most certainly "lose its soul."

Well, after 11 Republican Congressmen who voted against S-CHIP lost their seats in 2008, Thad was daunted by the politics of S-CHIP:  Thad voted in favor of the expansion.

Does that mean that Thaddeus has lost his soul?  Perhaps.  But it seems to me that he's simply exposed himself for the opportunist he is.  Thad knows that he is going to be challenged in 2010, and he is unwilling to give Democrats in the District this issue to run on.  Fair enough.

I still think there's a greater issue to be had.  Do we in the Eleventh want a Congressman who would even consider voting against children's health care?

2010 Cattle Call

The Democratic bench in the Eleventh District is actually surprisingly deep.  But who will be the person actually willing to take on Thaddeus McCotter?  Here is the first 2010 Cattle Call, ranking who is most likely to be the Democratic nominee for Congress.

1. Speaker Andy Dillon - Though seen by some as a polarizing figure due to the recall fight that engulfed him this past year, the term-limited Speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives will be highly recruited by the Party.  Re-elected to the State House with 66% of the vote last November, Dillon has a strong base of support in Redford.
2. Senator Glenn Anderson - State Senator from Livonia, Anderson would be strong candidate based on geography alone.  He would be able to eat in to McCotter's base in the city, which is certainly a consideration.  He is a strong progressive, but the trick will be getting him to leave the State Senate, where he is not term-limited.
3. State Representative Marc Corriveau - I volunteered for Representative Corriveau in the last campaign, and was very impressed with his candidacy.  As a Democrat who was able to carry Northville in his last election, Corriveau is clearly capable of talking to the white-collar suburban voters that make up a significant portion of this district.  I don't expect Corriveau to run, but if he does, he'll be a force to be reckoned with.
4. Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano - Although an unlikely candidate, Ficano would be a perfect fit for the District.  A Livonia resident, Ficano has been involved in County politics for more than twenty years, and has a reputation as being a strong and fair leader in the community.  If Ficano runs, he would be the heavy favorite for the nomination, and would likely clear the field.  It's improbable, but simply given how strong a candidate he would be, he gets a spot on the list.
5. State Representative Richard LeBlanc - LeBlanc is the Democratic Representative from Westland.  Although enormously popular in that area of the District (he was elected with 88% of the vote), LeBlanc is not established in the rest of the Eleventh, and is an unlikely and not particularly strong candidate in any regard.

That's the way I see it.  Only time will tell who will be the nominee.  Of course, it's more than possible that a dark-horse could take the nomination and the District by storm.  In any event, there's no reason we can't put up a competitive candidate in 2010.

Still Mad At Thad

Well, I kind of let this blog get away from me.  It looked like there was zero chance of winning the Eleventh in 2008, what with the state party ignoring it and the underfunded and uninspiring Joe Larkin the Democratic nominee.

Despite the long odds, we came this close to unseating Thaddeus McCotter last November.  Thad pulled in only 51% of the vote, winning by just six points over Larkin.  This happened even as Larkin spent less than $30,000, as opposed to McCotter's more than $1,000,000.

This race is near the top of the national party's list this year.  The Cook Political Report rates the race as "Lean Republican," and a Swing State Project metric combining margin of victory and PVI lists McCotter as the  fifth most vulnerable House GOPer.

With all that on our side, there is no reason that we can't take down Thad McCotter in 2010.  While much of my confidence last cycle was little more than naivete, there is real reason to believe that we can knock off the House Republican Policy Committee Chairman in the coming cycle.

Joseph Larkin Win Democratic Primary

Livonia lawyer Joseph Larkin is the Democratic nominee for Congress in the Eleventh Congressional District.

Receiving 73% of the primary vote last night, Larkin defeated Ed Kriewall in a landslide.  The work has just begun, with less than 3 months left until the general election.

This race will, unfortunately, not be competitive.  Larkin has only $2,799 cash on hand, good enough for a mere .49% of Thaddeus McCotter's $565,081.  You can't run a competitive campaign with less than $3000.  It's a shame, in a R+1 congressional district, that the Eleventh District would be ceded.

So what's the best case scenario?  First off, Larkin needs to start fundraising.  He'll never reach parity with McCotter, but if he can raise somewhere near $100,000, he can at least run a campaign.  Larkin needs to get out there and campaign - hard.  If he wants to have any chance in this race, he'll need to be campaigning everyday.  He should challenge McCotter to a series of debates.  This race, if nothing changes, with end in a ten point McCotter win.  We need a game changer to make this race even remotely close.  McCotter is too good of a pol to lose this race.  Mr. Larkin, you need to win it.

May Roundup

It's been quite a while since I've posted an update. I've been extremely busy as school winds down - I promise to have more timely updates during the summer.

Unfortunately, while I may have taken the month off, Thad hasn't. So here is a quick roundup of May's happenings:

• Thad's trying to scare up the election year wedge issue of gay marriage. Rep. McCotter is one of 29 Republicans co-sponsoring Rep. Paul Brown's constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in the United States. This follows the California Supreme court's decision to legalize gay marriage in that state. It guess it is no surprise that Thad would take such an intolerant position. In supporting the bill, Thad aligns himself with such agents of intolerance as Virgil Goode and Steve King.
• Thaddeus called the sitting Speaker of the House a dictator. “It’s not a dictatorial strength, which is what people were used to from [former Republican Majority Leader] Tom DeLay and Nancy Pelosi now.”
• Also, Thad has a new mailing going out around the district. In it, Mr. 15% from the League of Conservation Voters calls for conserving our Earth. He also has the gall to say that he supports expanding S-CHIP after he voted against it. He also failed to mention Iraq.

So Thad's been busy. Again, I promise less sporadic updates come summer.