Despite the long odds, we came this close to unseating Thaddeus McCotter last November. Thad pulled in only 51% of the vote, winning by just six points over Larkin. This happened even as Larkin spent less than $30,000, as opposed to McCotter's more than $1,000,000.
This race is near the top of the national party's list this year. The Cook Political Report rates the race as "Lean Republican," and a Swing State Project metric combining margin of victory and PVI lists McCotter as the fifth most vulnerable House GOPer.
With all that on our side, there is no reason that we can't take down Thad McCotter in 2010. While much of my confidence last cycle was little more than naivete, there is real reason to believe that we can knock off the House Republican Policy Committee Chairman in the coming cycle.